Grading the Gurus: Don Banks

NFL Draft season is in full swing. Every major outlet claims to have their very own "draft guru" who provides fans with the inside scoop as to who their favorite team will draft. These "gurus" will reference stats, quote sources and break every player down till no stone is left uncovered. These guys can sure talk a good game, but how well do they make picks? The InsideTheHuddle.tv editorial staff dug through the past five years of first round mock drafts from the top "gurus" in the business to find out just how good (or bad) these experts really are.

Part 3: Don Banks (Sports Illustrated)

First Round: First Half (Picks 1-16) v. Second Half (Picks 17-32):
     There really is no method to Don Banks’ madness. He is the lowest of the four experts we examined with a 26.25% success rate on picks 1-16. Banks has some serious issues with the fifth pick of the draft, he’s gone zero for five in the last five years. Banks does lead the pack with correct predictions in the second half with 16.5% correct, that’s 6.4% higher than Mel Kiper. Your best bet is to take whatever Banks says with a grain of salt.

Strengths:
    It’s no longer a secret Don Banks is not ol’ reliable when it comes to predicting which player will go at a select draft spot; but he is not completely useless. Banks has some decent rates when predicting which positions a certain team will pick, specifically offensive tackles (56.5%), quarterbacks (53.8%), and defensive ends (43.5%). Banks is actually extremely good at identifying trade possibilities, as he has predicted at least 5 day-of-draft trades that have actually ended up happening.

Weaknesses:
    Banks is mainly seems to have issues with picks of linebackers and defensive backs. When predicting linebackers, Banks correctly picked the right player only 15.4% of the time. The sad part about Banks’ predictions of defensive backs is the fact they were one of the most popular first round draft selections over the last five years. He was only able to select the right corner going to the right team one time in 23 chances.

Bad Calls:

• 2008: Devin Thomas (WR) Michigan State
  • Predicted: #11 to the Buffalo Bills
  • Actual: #35 to the Washington Redskins
  • About: GMs doubted Thomas’ receiving ability on draft day and so far in he has done nothing to prove them wrong. He bounced from the Redskins to the Panthers, and has now settled in as a special teams player with the New York Giants.
• 2010: Dan Williams (DT) Tennessee
  • Predicted: #9 to the Buffalo Bills
  • Actual: #26 to the Arizona Cardinals
  • About: Williams has not made an instant impact in the NFL, but got his first start in 2011 after playing in 15 games in his rookie season. In two years he has produced a modest 58 tackles to go along with zero sacks. 
• 2011: Blaine Gabbert  (QB) Missouri
  • Predicted:#3 to the Buffalo Bills
  • Actual: #10 to the Jacksonville Jaguars
  • About: What was Don Banks thinking?!?! In Gabbert’s rookie season he posted a paltry 50.8% completion percentage despite throwing mostly short passes and dump-offs. The most recent reports out of Jacksonville indicate the Jaguars are already close to giving up on Gabbert as their QB of the future.

Packers Picks:

• 2007 (#16): Marshawn Lynch (RB) California
  • Lynch went #12 to Buffalo, four spots before the Packers could select him. Lynch was traded in 2010 and has made a name for himself with his punishing runs and quirky personality.
  • Packers Selected: Justin Harrell (DT) Tennessee.
• 2008 (None): Packers traded this pick to the New York Jets.
• 2009 (#9): Tyson Jackson (DE) LSU
  • Jackson was selected with the #3 overall pick to Kansas City. The Packers were reportedly heavily interested in Jackson, but never got a shot at selecting him. He ended up playing all 16 games his rookie season on his way to earning NFL All-Rookie honors. Jackson is coming off a season where he posted a career high for tackles (37) and seems to be adjusting to the Chiefs 3-4 defense.
  • Packers Selected: B.J. Raji (DT) Boston College
  • Day-of-Draft Trade (#26): Clay Matthews (OLB) USC
• 2010 (#23): Mike Iupati (G) Idaho
  • Iupati was scooped up by the San Francisco 49ers at the seventeenth pick, six picks before the Packers could select him. Iupati has been a solid guard in the NFL and has been a starter since day one.
  • Packers Selected: Bryan Bulaga (OT) Iowa
• 2011 (#32): Cameron Heyward (DE) Ohio State
  • This prediction was only one spot off, as the Pittsburgh Steelers selected Heyward with the #31 overall pick. Heyward didn’t make an instant impact with the Steelers, but he did show flashes of promise and could develop into a nice player down the road.
  • Packers Selected: Derek Sherrod (OT) Mississippi State

Grade: D-Plus
    If one were to judge by the numbers, they might conclude Don Banks is not very good at his job. When looking at the adjusted numbers, his correct prediction of players sits at 22%, while his position predictions rest at 40%. Both of these are the lowest out of all the analysts we looked at. Banks is a wildcard, he will miss some easy early picks, but make late picks that are out of left field.