Grading the Gurus: Todd McShay

NFL Draft season is in full swing. Every major outlet claims to have their very own "draft guru" who provides fans with the inside scoop as to who their favorite team will draft. These "gurus" will reference stats, quote sources and break every player down till no stone is left uncovered. These guys can sure talk a good game, but how well do they make picks? The InsideTheHuddle.tv editorial staff dug through the past five years of first round mock drafts from the top "gurus" in the business to find out just how good (or bad) these experts really are.
Part 2: Todd McShay (ESPN)

First Round: First Half (Picks 1-16) v. Second Half (Picks 17-32):
    McShay makes majority of his correct predictions in the first half of the first round with 42.5% of his predictions being correct. That number is significantly boosted by McShay’s consistent success with the first four picks of each draft. On the back half of the first round, McShay does not fare so well: only 8.9% of his second half predictions have proved correct.

Strengths:
    McShay offers some useful insight to into predicting which teams will draft offensive tackles (52.2%), wide receivers (47.1%) and linebackers (46.2%). As we alluded to earlier, McShay has been consistent with the first four picks in each draft. In fact, he has only missed one of those picks in the last five years. Bengals fans should keep a close eye on McShay’s mocks, as he has consistently picked their first round draft choice correctly.

Weaknesses:
    While McShay is great at picking the top four, he is awful at picking who will go fifth. Sorry, Buccaneers fans. McShay has issues with predicting players at the running and defensive backs position. McShay is only correct in predicting running backs 15.4% of the time, and has not correctly predicted a running back since the 2008 NFL Draft. Considering defensive backs have been one of the most popular selections in the last five years, McShay’s 17.4% rate of correct predictions is sad to say the least.

Bad Calls:

• 2007: Brady Quinn (QB) Notre Dame
  • Predicted: #7 to the Minnesota Vikings
  • Actual: #22 to the Cleveland Browns
  • About: Quinn had one of the biggest draft stock collapses in the history of the NFL Draft, and fans everywhere watched him suffer the humiliation in the players’ lounge. His time in the NFL has been just as humiliating, warming the bench for much of his career and insulting America’s favorite quarterback, Tim Tebow.
• 2010: Dan Williams (DT) Tennessee
  • Predicted: #9 to the Buffalo Bills
  • Actual: #26 to the Arizona Cardinals
  • About: Williams has not made an instant impact in the NFL, but got his first start in 2011 after playing in 15 games in his rookie season. In two years he has produced a modest 58 tackles to go along with zero sacks.
• 2011: Jake Locker (QB) Washington
  • Predicted:#38 to the Arizona Cardinals
  • Actual: #8 to the Tennessee Titans
  • About: Locker was a surprise pick by the Titans and they chose to pick up Matt Hasselbeck to allow Locker time to develop. In the playing time he did receive he looked nothing short of great, throwing for four touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Packers Picks:

• 2007 (#16): Marshawn Lynch (RB) California
  • Lynch went #12 to Buffalo, four spots before the Packers could select him. Lynch was traded in 2010 and has made a name for himself with his punishing runs and quirky personality.
  • Packers Selected: Justin Harrell (DT) Tennessee
    • When Harrell wasn't on IR, he was effective at making almost no impact on the defensive line. The Packers and Harrell parted ways after four seasons in which Harrell played a total of 14 games.
• 2008 (None): Pick traded to the New York Jets.
• 2009 (#9): Brian Orakpo (DE/OLB) Texas
  • The Packers passed on selecting Orakpo and he fell to the Washington Redskins at pick #13. Orakpo is a two-time pro bowler and has already racked up 156 tackles and 28.5 sacks. He is also known for being on those lousy Gieco commercials.
  • Packers Selected: B.J. Raji (DT) Boston College
  • Day-of-Draft Trade (#26): Clay Matthews (OLB) USC 
• 2010 (#23): Mike Iupati (G) Idaho
  • Iupati was scooped up by the San Francisco 49ers at the seventeenth pick, six picks before the Packers could select him. Iupati has been a solid guard in the NFL and has been a starter since day one.
  • Packers Selected: Bryan Bulaga (OT) Iowa
• 2011 (#32): Aaron Williams (CB) Texas
  •  Williams dropped to the second round and ended up being the #34 overall pick with the Buffalo Bills. In his rookie season he played a total of 9 games and racked up 27 solo-tackles, 5 passes defended, and 1 interception.
  • Packers Selected: Derek Sherrod (OT) Mississippi State
    • The jury is still out on Sherrod. The coaching staff shifted him to guard in training camp and watched him struggle for weeks hoping he could make the adjestment. They finally switched him back to his natural position of tackle, but limited playing time and a gruesome leg injury leave Sherrod as somewhat of an unknown commodity.

Grade: B
    McShay is a clear second when it comes to the top NFL Draft prognosticators. When day-of-draft changes are excluded, McShay correctly predicts right player at in the right spot 32% of the time. He, like Kiper, possesses a good sense of what position each team will draft. 46% of his position predictions at each draft spot are correct.  Both percentages are a mere 1% less than Kiper’s. McShay has been successful despite being relatively inexperienced (when compared to Kiper). His normal haircut and tolerable personality led us to grade him out slightly higher than Kiper despite being statistically worse than him at making picks.